Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Silver-interesting action today

There is a lot of interesting action in the silver market today. After two minor sell offs earlier in the session, silver has now spiked up to a daily high on high volume, with 20% of a average daily volume trading in 3 minutes.

This was unexpected, because there are many reasons to expect silver to be significantly down today.

1) Weakness in the HUI index yesterday and today
2) commodities are down today
3) the dollar is up today

This combination rarely occurs on days when silver is up.

First, the HUI index has been weak, and was particularly weak yesterday. Silver/gold and HUI are a classic case of co-integration and error correction. (Google "drunk and her dog" for an amusing presentation of what co-integrated series with error correction looks like.) The error correction terms are larger for silver and gold than they are for the HUI. This means that when HUI moves a large percentage in a given day or over a given period and silver/gold does NOT, then silver/gold will likely move in that direction in subsequent sessions/periods.
Second, silver has correlated highly with the overall commodity index for the past 12 months.
Finally, there is the long-standing and obvious inverse correlation between the dollar index and precious metals.

So a peculiar movement today, made more-so by the heavy volume buying silver into the pit close.

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