Thursday, December 3, 2009

Market shift in equities

I believe that we are about to witness a market shift. For three weeks now the S&P 500 has been pushing above 1100 only to close below that level. Given the fact that there has been very little in the way of selling over the past 8 months, and given the extremely low volume, I think the preponderance of evidence suggests that we are at a market top. I would give equal chances to the S&P first touching either 900 or 1150. Therefore I believe the risk profile of the market justifies being flat or short equities over the next 2 months or until there is a 10% correction.

I'm not sure how this will affect precious metals in the short run. The question becomes - if the equity markets do start to tank like last Sept/Oct. will the dollar keep its anti-correlation or will the dollar fall alongside? If the dollar falls with the stock market than gold and silver could very well rally (particularly gold.) At this point however, I am rather skeptical. Until silver breaks $21.5 and gold demonstrates it is uncorrelated with the stock market, I would be lightening exposure to precious metals as well.

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